The Next Battlefield Will Be The South China Sea.. Us Diplomat..

Tensions are rising again in Southeast Asia as competing claims over the
resource rich South China Sea push closer to boiling point.

In the latest series of provocations, China launched "combat-ready"
patrols, offered disputed ocean blocs for sale and set up a garrison and
new administration on Sansha. Vietnam countered with continued military
overflights of the contested Spratly Islands despite warnings from
Chinese officials.

With Philippine President Aquino announcing a $1.8 billion upgrade in
defense forces the inevitable regional arms build-up has begun.

One would hope that countries in the region would take concerted action. That hope would be misplaced.

While the region shudders at the thought of open conflict affecting a
major artery of Asian trade, no collective action has been able to
resolve the situation. ASEAN couldn’t even reach agreement on a routine
joint public statement at the end of their annual gathering this year.
Not that another non-binding piece of paper would have had any real
influence. A 2002 Code of Conduct signed by ASEAN members and China to
resolve the disputes peacefully continues to be ignored as countries vie
for potentially lucrative natural resources.

An increasingly militarized land and sea grab continues despite calls
for peaceful resolution. With the U.S. in full Asian tilt, the South
China Sea dispute is shaping up to be the first major test of its
Pacific re-engagement. What the U.S. Can or should do remains woefully
undefined.

There is no longer any question that as the power vacuum expands, force,
not the power of the pen defines boundaries. Beijing increasingly
asserts its claims within a map of its own making while a troubling and
influential undercurrent gathers momentum.

China now claims the entire South China Sea, brushing the shores of its
neighbors and flying in the face of international norms. Call it the
conventional "first-strike" option supported by influential Chinese
think tanks and the popular state-controlled press—quick and decisive
military engagement to convince Vietnam and the Philippines to back
down. It worked in China’s favor during a 1974 stand-off over the
Paracel Islands.

Enter the U.S., seen by many as a natural hedge against excessive
Chinese influence. The State Department issued a lukewarm statement on
the South China Sea urging all parties to find a peaceful solution to
the impasse. Senator McCain called China's moves "provocative.”

Beyond routine drills and port calls with the Philippines, Vietnam and
India the U.S. has taken a decidedly cautious approach. Peaceful
resolution of territorial claims and a unified Southeast Asian response,
not a military confrontation with China, remains a core U.S. foreign
policy objective. That may be increasingly difficult to achieve as China
presses its claims, recently “escorting” an Indian naval flotilla from
its port call with Vietnam and hailing it with “welcome to Chinese
waters.”

In June Philippine President Aquino sought reassurance that U.S. defense
obligations would kick-in should they be attacked. The U.S. refused to
take sides in the territorial dispute, a long standing policy, but
reaffirmed its commitment to the bilateral Mutual Defense Treaty. At a
minimum this entails immediate consultations should hostilities break
out. It does not, however mean automatic military action.

Even interest from the rest of Southeast Asia for greater U.S.
engagement remains tentative. Vietnam continues joint exercises with
China, keen to maintain balance with its main trading partner to the
north. Non-claimant states including Thailand, Singapore, Cambodia,
Indonesia and Laos have shown no interest in “taking sides”, though U.S.
engagement is certainly welcome. For its part China has been quick to
use trade retaliation including a sudden technical hold on Philippine
fruit imports.

If history is any guide the unintended consequences of even a limited
military skirmish may prove hard to control. The situation remains even
more volatile with a leadership transition underway in Beijing as
nationalistic and even jingoistic tendencies rise throughout the
country. Appeasement also has its discontents. This is the fine line the
U.S. must tread.

There are no signs that the cycle of provocation and push-back will end
any time soon. It should be no surprise if boat ramming incidents
between fishing vessels and cutters eventually turn more
confrontational. Perhaps the greatest U.S. influence will be containing
any escalation by its presence alone, helping to thwart the notion that
China can launch a limited attack on its neighbors without consequences.

Despite China’s preference the U.S. can and will remain a Pacific power,
guarantor of the common interest, strengthening cooperation among
parties, and routinely testing free access to international waters.

Southeast Asia should not overestimate this involvement and
under-prepare itself thinking that their fishing fleets or contested
boundaries will fall under U.S. protection. All countries in the region
need to develop their own capabilities while engaging in greater
regional military cooperation. The U.S. should be seen as the military
of last resort, not first. At the same time China should not
underestimate U.S. resolve to maintain the peace.


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